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MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Revenue rose 30% YoY to $213.9M, driven by a 77% higher average BTC price, but sequentially was flat vs Q4 ($213.9M vs $214.4M) .
  • EPS was a significant miss versus consensus as MARA reported diluted EPS of -$1.55 vs -$0.375* expected; revenue modestly missed $213.9M vs $217.6M*; Q4 was a beat on both EPS ($1.27 vs $0.679*) and revenue ($214.4M vs $183.9M*) .
  • The quarter’s net loss (-$533.4M) was primarily driven by a $510.2M loss on fair value of digital assets and an additional $(116.1)M change in fair value of digital assets receivable, reflecting BTC price at quarter-end; management flagged that BTC near ~$100k post-quarter implies a substantial fair value gain in Q2 .
  • Operationally strong: Energized hash rate reached 54.3 EH/s (+95% YoY), cost per petahash per day improved to $28.5 (down 25% YoY, 10% sequential), blocks won rose 81% YoY to 666 .
  • Near-term catalysts: potential Q2 fair value recovery if BTC price holds, announcements on public-private energy partnerships, progress on 114 MW wind farm and 25 MW flare gas operations, and commercialization of 2PIC cooling and AI-edge infrastructure .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Strategic pivot to owned energy lowered structural costs: purchased energy cost per BTC was $35,728 and $0.04/kWh at owned sites; cost per petahash/day improved to $28.5 (25% YoY, 10% QoQ) .
  • Hashrate and scale expanded: energized hash rate reached 54.3 EH/s (+95% YoY); BTC holdings rose to 47,531 including loaned/collateralized BTC (+174% YoY), combined cash+BTC ~$4.1B at quarter-end .
  • Management emphasized vertical integration and tech differentiation: “We’re forging ahead, staying true to our strategy… transforming MARA into a vertically integrated digital energy and infrastructure company” . They also highlighted 2PIC pilots and own mining pool “outperformed the network average by over 10%” .

What Went Wrong

  • Large non-operating loss on digital assets: net loss of $(533.4)M, with $(510.2)M loss on fair value of digital assets, and $(116.1)M on digital assets receivable, driven by BTC price at 3/31/25 vs 12/31/24 .
  • Adjusted EBITDA swung to a loss of $(483.6)M from $542.1M in Q1 2024 despite higher revenue, reflecting fair value changes and higher G&A tied to scale (headcount ~171 vs 72 YoY) .
  • BTC production moderated sequentially: BTC produced was 2,286 (down 8% QoQ) and average BTC/day 25.4 (down 6% QoQ); blocks won dipped QoQ to 666 from 703 despite YoY growth, reflecting network difficulty and halving effects .

Financial Results

Revenue, EPS, Net Income, EBITDA

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$131.6 $214.4 $213.9
Net Income ($USD Millions)$(124.8) $528.3 $(533.4)
Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.42) $1.24 $(1.55)
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$(71.0) $786.7 $(493.4)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$21.8 $794.4 $(483.6)

Operational KPIs

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Blocks Won604 703 666
BTC Produced (units)2,070 2,492 2,286
Avg BTC/Day22.5 27.1 25.4
Energized Hashrate (EH/s)36.9 53.2 54.3
Cost per Petahash/Day ($)$37.1 $35.1 $28.5
Purchased Energy Cost per BTC ($)N/A$31,527 (FY context) $35,728
BTC Holdings (incl. loaned/collateralized)26,747 44,893 47,531
Combined Cash + BTC ($USD Billions)~$1.9 ~$4.6 ~$4.1
Unrestricted Cash ($USD Millions)$164 $391.8 $196.2

Results vs Wall Street Consensus

MetricQ4 2024 EstimateQ4 2024 ActualBeat/MissQ1 2025 EstimateQ1 2025 ActualBeat/Miss
Revenue ($USD Millions)183.9*214.4 Beat217.6*213.9 Miss
Primary EPS ($USD)0.679*1.274 Beat-0.375*-1.579 Miss

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RevenueFY/Q2 2025Not provided Not provided; management notes Q2 fair value gain implied at BTC ~$100k Maintained (no formal guidance)
Adjusted EBITDAFY/Q2 2025Not provided Not provided; cost per petahash expected to decline as owned generation ramps Maintained (no formal guidance)
BTC ProductionFY/Q2 2025Not provided No formal target; avoidance of rigid EH/s targets; disciplined growth Maintained (strategy statement)
OpEx (G&A excl. SBC)FY/Q2 2025Not providedScaling with business; G&A excl. SBC $36.9M in Q1; focus on ROCE Informational update
Capital Programs2025ATM programs used opportunisticallyNew $2.0B ATM initiated in Q1; $100.1M raised in Q1 Expanded
Treasury PolicyOngoingFull HODL adopted in 2024 Continue full HODL; opportunistic BTC purchases Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
AI/technology initiatives (2PIC, AI inference)2PIC orders secured; pilots; AI/HPC infrastructure focus 30 MW 2PIC pilot underway; designing liquid cold-plate for AI; pilots with compute OEMs Accelerating
Supply chain/tariffsDomestic chip supply via Auradine; tariff mitigation Own miners manufacturing; minimize tariff impact; source outside China Proactive mitigation
Energy partnerships/public-privatePipeline in Middle East/Africa; 372 MW Ohio capacity Active discussions in U.S./Europe/Middle East; wind farm (114 MW) and flare gas (25 MW) progressing Expanding
Product performance (blocks/BTC/hash cost)Blocks up; cost per petahash improving Cost/petahash $28.5; blocks 666; BTC/day 25.4; owned energy lowers costs Improving efficiency
Regulatory/political narrativePro-crypto engagement; policy advocacy Only miner at White House Crypto Summit; congressional testimony Elevated profile
R&D executionBuild 2PIC; immersion cooling; Auradine miners Custom miners with Auradine chips; 2PIC deployment; MARA Pool capturing higher revenue Advancing

Management Commentary

  • “We’re forging ahead, staying true to our strategy. We remain laser-focused on transforming MARA into a vertically integrated digital energy and infrastructure company.”
  • “In Q1, MARA delivered strong operational metrics. Our purchased energy cost per Bitcoin was $35,728. Our daily cost per petahash improved 25% year-over-year.”
  • “We believe… by bringing solutions for load balancing to the AI industry… Bitcoin miners provide the flexible load that enables AI data centers to operate as a flexible load on their grid.”
  • “Although we recognized a loss in Q1 based on a quarter-end BTC price of $82,534, the current BTC price of approximately $100,000 would imply a substantial fair value gain.”
  • “Our 2PIC systems deliver better thermal performance, reduce space footprint, and use zero water… block reward luck has outperformed the network average by over 10%.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Off-grid strategy economics: Management expects IRRs of ~30–40% for the AARP (advanced ASIC retirement) program even under depressed hash price assumptions; cost/MWh around ~$10 at off-grid sites vs ~$50–55 at traditional sites .
  • Hash cost trajectory: With owned generation and reuse of depreciated machines behind the meter, hash cost expected to continue declining over time .
  • AI cooling commercialization: 2PIC pilots show substantial overclocking potential and CapEx savings; liquid cold-plate solutions being co-developed with compute OEMs for AI workloads .
  • Capital strategy: New $2B ATM provides flexibility; capital deployed to accretive projects, with ROCE as a key KPI; past converts used to buy BTC .
  • HODL policy: MARA reaffirmed full HODL and opportunistic purchasing; distinguishes miner economics vs corporate BTC treasuries .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025: Revenue modest miss ($213.9M actual vs $217.6M*), EPS significant miss (-$1.579 actual vs -$0.375*), driven largely by quarter-end BTC fair value losses .
  • Q4 2024: Meaningful beat on both revenue ($214.4M actual vs $183.9M*) and EPS ($1.274 actual vs $0.679*), aided by fair value gains as BTC price rose into year-end .

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Non-operating fair value swings dominate quarterly EPS; near-term trading likely reactive to BTC price at quarter-end and intra-quarter, with potential Q2 tailwind if BTC holds near ~$100k .
  • Structural cost position improving: owned energy assets (wind, flare gas) and vertical integration are compressing cash cost per petahash; expect continued efficiency gains as deployments ramp .
  • Scale and reserves: 54.3 EH/s energized and 47,531 BTC holdings provide operating leverage but also magnify fair value volatility; position sizing should reflect higher earnings sensitivity to BTC moves .
  • Emerging monetization vectors: 2PIC cooling, MARA Pool, and AI-edge infrastructure can diversify revenue and support lower-cost compute deployments; watch for pilot-to-commercial transitions .
  • Capital flexibility: $2B ATM launched; management signals disciplined, KPI-driven deployment with ROCE focus; equity issuance cadence and BTC-backed financing are tools to fund growth without over-leverage .
  • Production trajectory: sequential BTC production dipped with halving and difficulty; blocks won and network share metrics remain resilient, suggesting operational execution is intact .
  • Watch for public-private partnership announcements across U.S./EU/Middle East as potential catalysts for low-cost MW adds and further integrated energy positioning .